Successful Short-Term Prediction of First Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Strikes in Thunderstorm Events

Sebastian Schatz*, Lukas Schwalt, Julia Christina Maier, Stephan Pack, Hannes Kohlmann, Hannes Pichler

*Korrespondierende/r Autor/-in für diese Arbeit

Publikation: Beitrag in Buch/Bericht/KonferenzbandBeitrag in einem KonferenzbandBegutachtung

Abstract

Lightning discharges in the form of Cloud-to-Ground (CG) flashes pose a significant challenge for airports, their infra-structure and personnel. Although existing weather prediction models are able to forecast thunderstorms with a certain precision in terms of time and location, short-term forecasts of the occurrence of the first lightning discharge are not accurate. Especially, the trend towards remote air traffic management and the lack of meteorologists working on site make decisions even more challenging. This challenge was addressed by aligning data from an electric field meter network installed in the surrounding of Graz Airport, Austria with lightning location system data and weather radar data, to derive parameters to forecast the first CG flash in an observed area. The analyzed data set includes 25 thunderstorms from the convective thunderstorm season 2022 and 2023, which included CG lightning within a radius of 5 km around Graz Air-port. From the derived parameters, alert and shutdown times for the onset of CG flashes in the observed area can be successfully predicted. A median shutdown lead time of the first CG in the 5 km of 18.43 minutes was calculated. This leads to a successful short-term forecast to support the decision of the meteorologists and to improve personal safety.
Originalspracheenglisch
TitelICLP 2024 - 37th International Conference on Lightning Protection
Seitenumfang6
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - Okt. 2024
Veranstaltung37th International Conference on Lightning Protection: VDE Lightning Protection - Bilderberg Bellevue Hotel Dresden, Dresden, Deutschland
Dauer: 1 Dez. 20246 Dez. 2024

Konferenz

Konferenz37th International Conference on Lightning Protection
KurztitelICLP 2024
Land/GebietDeutschland
OrtDresden
Zeitraum1/12/246/12/24

Fields of Expertise

  • Sustainable Systems

Dieses zitieren