Importance of glacier runoff for sustainable development of the Tarim River oases (Xinjiang, NW China)

Life in the arid Tarim River basin, located in Xinjiang/NW China, depends on the water supply from the surrounding glacierized mountains. Ongoing climate change significantly impacts the cryosphere with potentially severe consequences for water availability. Runoff in the upper Aksu River, Tarim’s most important tributary, has been increasing over the last decades mainly due to the increased glacier meltwater contribution. Modeling using future climate scenarios indicates a glacier area loss of at least 50% by 2100 and that river discharge will first increase concomitantly with glacier shrinkage until about 2050 but probably decline thereafter. The irrigated area doubled in the Aksu catchment between the early 1990s and 2020 causing at least a doubling of the water demand. With the expected further growth in agriculture and the economy, the water demand is expected to even further increase, and hence, a significant water shortage can be expected in the future. Therefore improved projections of discharge and efficient and sustainable water consumption are needed for both further socioeconomic development and the preservation of natural ecosystems.