Robust Bayesian target vector optimization for multi-stage manufacturing processes

This research focuses on optimizing multi-stage manufacturing processes using Bayesian optimization (BO) with a robust Expected Improvement (EI) acquisition function. The aim is to optimize towards pre-selected target vectors, not to just minimize or maximize a function. To achieve this, we minimize the Euclidean distance between the actual and target output vectors, which requires transforming the Gaussian surrogate model posterior distribution into a non-central χ² (NCχ²) distribution. Furthermore, the distance measure additionally uses aleatoric uncertainty estimates of the actual output vectors to achieve robustness. We use a cascaded method that also considers the optimization results of intermediate stages, whereby optimization results are propagated from the last stage towards the first stage in each optimization iteration. By considering intermediate process outputs and aleatoric effects, our approach provides a robust optimization method for multi-stage manufacturing processes. To validate our method and to evaluate its properties, we use two artificial use cases. Moreover, we evaluate our approach in an industrial multi-stage forging process for the manufacturing of a nickel basis superalloy turbine disk, where involved stages are represented by corresponding 2D finite element method (FEM) DEFORM simulations. Evaluation suggests that our approach is superior in optimizing multi-stage manufacturing processes by considering all stage outcomes, robust distance measures, and the use of appropriate uncertainty distributions.