Successful Short-Term Prediction of First Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Strikes in Thunderstorm Events

Lightning discharges in the form of Cloud-to-Ground (CG) flashes pose a significant challenge for airports, their infra-structure and personnel. Although existing weather prediction models are able to forecast thunderstorms with a certain precision in terms of time and location, short-term forecasts of the occurrence of the first lightning discharge are not accurate. Especially, the trend towards remote air traffic management and the lack of meteorologists working on site make decisions even more challenging. This challenge was addressed by aligning data from an electric field meter network installed in the surrounding of Graz Airport, Austria with lightning location system data and weather radar data, to derive parameters to forecast the first CG flash in an observed area. The analyzed data set includes 25 thunderstorms from the convective thunderstorm season 2022 and 2023, which included CG lightning within a radius of 5 km around Graz Air-port. From the derived parameters, alert and shutdown times for the onset of CG flashes in the observed area can be successfully predicted. A median shutdown lead time of the first CG in the 5 km of 18.43 minutes was calculated. This leads to a successful short-term forecast to support the decision of the meteorologists and to improve personal safety.