Uncertainty integration and representation of time horizon for long-term models

Sonja Wogrin, D. Isaac Camilo González Romero, Diego A. Tejada-Arango, D. Juan José Valentín Vírseda, Tomas Gomez, Efraim Centeno

Research output: Other contribution


This report aims to assess and determine the best ways to represent short-term details in longer-term models such that the computational tractability of these long-term models is maintained while the accuracy of the results is not compromised. First, we analyze different options of representing short-term details (e.g., such as varying Renewable Energy (RE) production) in long-term models while aiming for both computational tractability of models and accuracy of results. Second, we also explore the different ways to incorporate both short-term (e.g., uncertainty due to intermittent renewable production) and long-term uncertainties (e.g., RE policies, fuel prices, demand evolution) in long-term models and evaluate them depending on their suitability for long-term transmission and generation expansion models.[…]
Original languageEnglish
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2020

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