Public buildings: Life-cycle GHG emission scenarios and reduction trajectories by 2050

Responsible for 37% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the construction and operation of buildings involves substantial potential to mitigate climate change. Although they represent only a small part of the building stock, publicly-owned buildings can lead by example and stimulate emission reductions through public procurement processes that are aligned with existing climate goals. In this paper, possible GHG emission reduction pathways for public office buildings in Austria are explored. A building stock model for Austria’s publicly-owned office buildings is developed, which projects operational and embodied GHG emissions from new construction, renovation and demolition until 2050. Findings show that phasing out fossil fuel use in building operations by 2050 enables GHG emission pathways that are compatible with the Carbon Law but still exceed Austria’s available carbon budget for public office buildings. A higher renovation rate can facilitate the fossil fuel phase-out by reducing energy demand. Embodied GHG emissions are becoming increasingly important and the main source of GHG emissions when phasing out fossil fuels in space heating. More research and policies are therefore needed to accelerate reductions of embodied GHG emissions towards net zero.