Automatic thermal model identification and distributed optimisation for load shifting in city quarters

Buildings with floor heating or thermally activated building structures offer significant potential for shifting the thermal load and thus reduce peak demand for heating or cooling. This potential can be realised with the help of model predictive control (MPC) methods, provided that sufficiently descriptive mathematical models of the thermal characteristics of the individual thermal zones exist. Creating these by hand is infeasible for larger numbers of zones; instead, they must be identified automatically based on measurement data. In this paper an approach is presented that allows automatically identifying thermal models usable in MPC. The results show that the identified zone models are sufficiently accurate for the use in an MPC, with a mean average error below (Formula presented.) for the prediction of the zone temperatures. The identified zone models are then used in a distributed optimisation scheme that coordinates the individual zones and buildings of a city quarter to best support an energy hub by flattening the overall load profile. In a preliminary simulation study carried out for buildings with floor heating, the operating costs for heating in a winter month were reduced by approximately 9%. Therefore, it can be concluded that the proposed approach has a clear economic benefit.